Colorado Real Estate Update – 2nd Quarter 2017

 

 

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado added 62,000 new jobs over the past 12 months, an increase of 2.4% over this time last year. All of the metropolitan markets included in this report saw annual employment growth, with substantial growth in Boulder (4.7%) and Fort Collins (+4.1%), and more modest growth in Grand Junction (0.3%). In May, the unemployment rate in the state was 2.3%, matching the prior month and down 3.4% from a year ago. The lowest unemployment rate was in Fort Collins at just 2.0%. The highest rate was in Grand Junction, though it was still a relatively low 3.3%. It is reasonable to expect these markets will see above-average wage growth given the tight labor market.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • There were 17,581 home sales during the first quarter of 2017, a solid annual increase of 3.9% over the first quarter of 2016.
  • Jefferson County saw sales grow at the fastest rate over the past 12 months, with a 9.4% increase. There was also an impressive increase in Douglas County (+6.3%). More modest sales growth was seen in Denver and Weld Counties.
  • Even with the rise in sales, listing activity is still running at well below historic averages, with the total number of homes for sale in the second quarter 7.6% below a year ago.
  • Sales growth continues to trend higher, but inventory levels remain well below where they need to be to satisfy demand.

 

HOME PRICE

  • Due to solid demand, home prices continue to rise with average prices up by 8.5% year-over-year to an average across the region of $438,980.
  • Boulder County saw slower appreciation in home values, but the trend is still positive.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Denver and Weld Counties, where prices rose by 12.4% and 10.6% respectively.
  • Economic growth is driving job growth, which is driving housing demand. Given the relative shortage of homes for sale, expect to see home prices continue to appreciate at above-average rates at least through the rest of the year.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by three days when compared to the second quarter of 2016.
  • Homes in all counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County stood out as it took an average of only 11 days to sell a home.
  • During the second quarter, it took an average of just 17 days to sell a home. This is down by a substantial 13 days compared to the first quarter of this year.
  • The takeaway here is that demand remains robust as evidenced by the remarkably short amount of time that it is taking to sell a home.

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

After the second quarter of 2017, I have moved the needle even farther in favor of sellers. Mortgage rates remain very competitive and, with the specter of lending standards easing a little, demand will remain robust, which will be reflected in rising home values.

 

 

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has over 25 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

 


Posted on August 9, 2017 at 9:12 am
Windermere DTC | Posted in Market News | Tagged ,

Colorado Real Estate Market Update – 1st Quarter 2017

The Gardner Report  | CO Q1 2017

The following analysis of the Metro Denver and Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW


Annual employment in Colorado grew by a respectable 2.3% in February, which equated to about 64,000 new jobs over the past 12 months. Within the metropolitan market areas included in this report, employment has been mixed, with Denver, Fort Collins, and Colorado Springs reporting above-average growth. However, Greeley and Grand Junction saw a modest decline in employment.

In February, the unemployment rate in Colorado was 2.9%, down from 3.3% a year ago. The lowest reported unemployment rates were in Fort Collins and Boulder, at just 2.6%. The highest rate was in Grand Junction, but it was still a respectable 4.7%.

HOME SALES


  • There were 11,640 home sales during the first quarter of 2017, an annual increase of 2.2%.
  • Arapahoe County saw sales grow at the fastest rate over the past 12 months, with a 7.9% increase. There were also impressive increases in Douglas County. There were very modest sales declines in the relatively small Larimer and Weld Counties.
  • Listing activity remains well below historic averages, with the total number of homes for sale in the first quarter 10.7% below that seen a year ago.
  • Home sales are generally higher than seen a year ago, but inventory levels are well below where they need to be to satisfy would-be buyers.
Annual Change in Home Sales

HOME PRICES


  • With demand remaining strong, home prices continue to escalate. In the first quarter of this year, average prices rose by 8% when compared to a year ago. Average home prices across the region broke the $400,000 barrier at $402,273.
  • Home prices remain well above historic highs and continue to trend upward. While there are very modest slowdowns in price growth—possibly a function of rising interest rates—they should continue to appreciate at above-average rates throughout 2017.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Arapahoe and Weld Counties, where prices rose by 12.2% and 10.1% respectively.
  • The housing market remains strong and this will continue until we see a substantial increase in the number of homes for sale, which is unlikely in the near-term.
Colorado Home Sales Heat Map
Annual Change in Home Sale Prices

DAYS ON MARKET


  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by one day when compared to the first quarter of 2016.
  • Homes in a majority of the counties took less than a month to sell.
  • During the first quarter, it took an average of 30 days to sell a home. This is down by one day compared to the same time last year.
  • Demand remains very strong across the region, which is evident by the remarkably short amount of time that it takes to sell a home.
Average Days on Market

CONCLUSIONS


This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

In the first quarter of 2017, the needle remains well into seller’s territory. The recent increases in mortgage rates have not had any dampening effect on either demand or home prices, and I expect this will remain unchanged through the end of the year.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER


Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has over 25 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
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Posted on May 18, 2017 at 10:12 am
Windermere DTC | Posted in Market News | Tagged ,

Colorado Real Estate Market Update – 4th Quarter 2016

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Annual employment growth in Colorado was measured at a respectable 2.2% in November and will likely finish the year having created around 55,000 new jobs. Within the metropolitan market areas included in this report, we are seeing employment growth at or above the state level and I anticipate that this will continue to be the case in 2017.

Unemployment rates continue to drop, and with rates now below three percent, all of Colorado’s metro areas are at full employment. Because of this robust level of growth—in concert with very low unemployment levels—I anticipate that we will see some fairly substantial income growth as companies look to recruit new talent and keep existing employees happy.

HOME SALE ACTIVITY

  • There were 14,614 home sales during the fourth quarter of 2016—up by a marginal 0.7% from the same period in 2015.
  • Jefferson County saw sales grow at the fastest rate over the past 12 months, with a 5.9% increase. Sales activity fell in three counties, but this was a function of short supply rather than slowing demand.
  • Listing activity continues to remain well below historic averages, with the total number of homes for sale in the fourth quarter 12.8% below that seen a year ago.
  • The key takeaway from this data is that 2017 is shaping up to be one which will still substantially favor home sellers. I do anticipate that we will see some improvement in listing activity, but it is almost a certainty that demand will exceed supply for another year.

 

HOME PRICES

  • Demand continued to exceed supply in the final three months of 2016 and this caused home prices to continue to rise. In the fourth quarter, average prices rose by 9% when compared to the fourth quarter of 2015. The average sales price across the region is now $393,969.
  • In many parts of the region, prices are well above historic highs and continue to trend upward. With double-digit price increases over the past year, the market remains very hot.
  • Annual price growth was strongest in Larimer and Jefferson Counties, where prices rose by 11.8% and 10.9% respectively.
  • While we will likely see some modest softening in home price growth in 2017, we can still expect a very strong market.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by one day when compared to the fourth quarter of 2015.
  • Homes in a majority of the counties took less than a month to sell.
  • In the final quarter of the year, it took an average of just 27 days to sell a home. This is down from the 28 days it took in the fourth quarter of 2015.
  • The Northern Colorado housing market is still firing on all cylinders. The only missing piece is listings, which remain well below the historic average.

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, sales velocities, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the fourth quarter of 2016, the needle remains firmly in the seller’s territory. It will be interesting to see if the recent increase in mortgage rates has any effect at all on the housing market. I believe that it will; however, I expect that it will likely cause a slowdown in home price growth rather than any collapse in home prices.

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has over 25 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.


Posted on March 14, 2017 at 2:35 pm
Windermere DTC | Posted in Market News |

Two Years & Top 3% in Metro Denver Market

Windermere Real Estate, the largest regional brokerage in the Western U.S. is celebrating its second year in the Denver market this month.  After just two years, the Seattle-based company now ranks in the top 3% of all real estate brokerage companies in the metropolitan area.

Exclusively WindermereWhile Windermere has been growing over the last two years, metro Denver homeowners have been benefitting from the robust growth in real estate prices.  According to the latest report from the Federal Housing Finance Authority, Denver ranks 14th out of 258 metropolitan areas for home price appreciation with 10.14% growth over the last 12 months.

This appreciation rate is nearly double the long-term average of 5.8%.  Prices in metro Denver have been appreciating at double-digit rates for the last four years in a row.  The average price of a single-family home now stands at $448,000.  Just two years ago, when Windermere started in Metro Denver, the average price was $371,000.

“For four years now we have had the perfect storm to cause prices to increase at a rate that is nearly double the long-term average.  Metro Denver is one of the fastest growing populations in the country, we have an incredibly healthy economy with high employment, interest rates that are roughly half of the long-term average, and the inventory of homes is at all-time lows,” said Eric Thompson president of Windermere Real Estate in Colorado.

There are only 2,918 single family homes currently for sale in Metro Denver, 7.8% lower than a year ago.  “With tight supply and strong demand, we see expect very strong price appreciation for the foreseeable future,” said Thompson.

About Windermere Colorado:

Since its inception in 1972, Windermere Real Estate has grown to be a network of 300 offices with more than 6,000 agents by focusing on three basic principles: hire the best people, give them the best tools and create thriving communities. Windermere’s growth has allowed them to expand into the Colorado market led by Eric Thompson, President of Windermere Colorado. 


Posted on March 14, 2017 at 1:42 pm
Windermere DTC | Posted in Community | Tagged , ,

2017 Annual Real Estate Market Forecast Recap Video

Thank you to everyone who joined us for our 2017 Annual Real Estate Market Forecast Event last month!  In case you missed it, here is a quick recap video of the incredible information that was shared.  If you would like to receive a PDF of all of the slides, send us an email at dtc@windermere.com as we would be happy to send them to you!


Posted on February 23, 2017 at 4:48 pm
Windermere DTC | Posted in Market News |

Ninja Selling Boot Camp

What would happen if you could increase your income per hour and have a life?  This course will give you simple, easy-to-implement strategies so you can immediately attract more customers and enhance your life.  Whether ​you ​are ​new ​to ​Ninja ​Selling ​or ​you ​need ​a ​quick ​refresher, ​this ​3-hour ​session ​is ​perfect ​for ​you. ​ ​Taught ​by ​ ​Michael ​Fanning, ​renowned ​Certified ​Ninja ​Selling ​Instructor ​and ​Senior ​Vice ​President ​of ​Windermere ​Real ​Estate.

 

For More Information or to register please visit:  https://www.facebook.com/events/1126615340798283/

 


Posted on February 22, 2017 at 12:47 pm
Windermere DTC | Posted in Uncategorized |

A Week in the Denver MLS – March 29, 2016

With the home inventory at all time lows our team is constantly monitoring the listing activity in the local MLS – REcolorado, and some interesting observations can be made on reviewing the data over this past week.

This first graph takes a look at how new listing numbers (homes just placed on the market for the first time) compare with price reductions and failed sale attempts (withdrawn & expired listings) over the last 7 days.

Denver_Colorado_MLS_new_price_reductions_withdrawn_expired_off_market_listings_3-29-2016

The standouts from this chart —

  • Only 674 new listings came on the market.
  • Relative to the number of new listings, nearly half of that number reduced their price.
  • 229 listings were takes off the market because they failed to sell (roughly 1/3 the number of new listings)!

 

The listings that are priced well are moving very quickly and often choosing between multiple offers, but the impact of this lessens as price increases.  

Denver_Colorado_MLS_under_contract_sold_back_on_market_listings_3-29-2016

 

 

 

Once a listing goes under contract as it will either successfully close or go back on the market for some reason.

The data here shows that relative to the Sold listing numbers roughly 9 out of 10 are successfully closing which leaves 1 out of 10 coming back on the market.

We’ve seen this number fluctuate over the last 6 months, with the current numbers actually on the lower end.  This could be due to the fact that we are near month end, but some would still find it surprising given the low inventory market we find ourselves in.

Properly positioning a property within the market not only with the right price, but also an effective marketing plan and the benefits of the Windermere Certified Listing program have lowered our price reductions and expiration rate to nearly zero, while still maximizing the bottom-line return for our sellers.  To learn more, connect with one of the amazing Brokers on our team!


Posted on March 29, 2016 at 3:14 pm
Windermere DTC | Posted in Selling | Tagged ,

Getting Your Home Ready to Sell in Denver

Getting your home ready to sell may seem like a challenge, but you know that the more appealing the house is, the more likely it is to sell quickly. Windermere Real Estate 5280 serves Denver and the south metro suburbs down to Castle Rock.  We can help you with pricing, showings, and connecting with potential buyers, but what about the steps leading up to that first showing or open house? Many things, like cleaning the house and maintaining the lawn may seem obvious, but there are some more in-depth measures that you can take

Make Sure the Light is Right

Go through your home and make sure there are no missing or burned out light bulbs. You may even want to swap out bright bulbs for softer, warmer light, so that the home feels more inviting. For natural light, make sure your windows, blinds, and shades are clean so the light isn't diffused too much or reveal layers of dust.

Clean Out Your Closets

It's a fairly well-known fact that potential buyers will look in closets and cabinets to gain a better idea of how much storage space the house has. If your closets are overflowing or unorganized, the space can seem cramped, and buyers may think that you haven't taken the time to get the house ready. By removing a portion of the clothes in a closet or dishes in a cupboard (and cleaning and dusting them thoroughly) the buyer can truly see the entire storage space.

Remove Those Pet Items

It's possible that the buyers will be pet-lovers themselves, but leaving dog food sitting out or the kitty litter tray in plain view can quickly change a buyer's mind. Take the time to clean the house thoroughly and remove any traces of your pets, and arrange care for them during the showing.

A majority of potential buyers will make up their mind about your house from the moment they set foot inside, and you only have once chance to make a good first impression. By following these steps and a few others, you can get your home ready to sell, and we can make sure that it sells quickly. Contact us today!


Posted on February 23, 2016 at 4:48 pm
Windermere DTC | Posted in Selling | Tagged , , , ,